CONVECTIVE FORECAST - UPDATE
VALID 13Z TUE 10/06 - 06Z WED 11/06 2003
ISSUED: 10/06 13:09Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BENELUX COUNTRIES AND PARTS OF FRANCE AND GERMANY

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF IRELAND, SCOTLAND, FRANCE, THE BENELUX COUNTRIES, GERMANY, CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL EUROPE, MUCH OF THE BALKANS, AND PARTS OF THE UKRAINE AND RUSSIA.

SYNOPSIS

REF CONVECTIVE FORECAST

DISCUSSION

...FRANCE, THE BENELUX COUNTRIES AND GERMANY...
A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS, IS PRESENT OVER CENTRAL NORTHERN FRANCE. MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THAT AREA AND OVER EASTERN BELGIUM, THE NETHERLANDS AND GERMANY. SFC WINDS FROM THE SSE AT 5-10KTS AND 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY 850 HPA WINDS ARE SOUTHWESTERLY ARE PRESENT OVER THE NETHERLANDS AS SHOWN PER CABAUW WIND PROFILER...YIELDING A FAIRLY HELICAL INFLOW LAYER FOR ANY STORM THAT FORMS AND...GIVEN THAT LCL HEIGHT ARE QUITE LOW...A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR REGIME SOUTH OF A E-W ORIENTED WIND-SHIFT OVER NORTHERN BELGIUM INTO THE RUHRGEBIET, WHERE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE SMALLER. EXPECT THE SUPERCELLS OVER NORTHERN FRANCE, WHICH ARE CAPABLE OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...AND THAT HAVE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT...TO PERSIST AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD. MORE SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION MAY FORM SOUTH OF THE PRESENT CONVECTION AND OVER EASTERN BELGIUM AND BORDERING PARTS OF GERMANY. A SMALLER CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG STORMS IS PRESENT OVER THE NETHERLANDS. THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO CLUSTER MORE OVER TIME, PROBABLY INTO A FEW LINEAR CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH A MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY NIGHT THIS ACTIVITY IN EXPECTED TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EASTERN NETHERLANDS AND NORTHERN GERMANY.

...RUSSIA...
REF CONV FCST

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